Washington: In a stark warning, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has projected that global temperatures will remain at or near record highs between 2025 and 2029, further escalating climate-related risks for ecosystems, economies, and societies.
According to the WMO’s latest “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update”, there is an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will be warmer than 2024, and an 86% likelihood that global temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one year between 2025 and 2029.
“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record,” said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General. “Unfortunately, this new data gives little reason for optimism in the short term. We are heading into uncharted territory, and this will affect every aspect of life on Earth.”
Key Findings of the WMO Report:
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80% probability that one of the years between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 in terms of global temperature.
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86% chance that one year in the period will be more than 1.5°C warmer than the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.
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70% chance that the five-year average temperature for 2025–2029 will exceed 1.5°C, though longer-term averages may still remain below this threshold.
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Arctic temperatures are expected to rise 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 average during winter months (November–March), more than three times the global average.
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Sea ice concentrations in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas are projected to decline further by 2029.
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Precipitation patterns for May–September 2025–2029 are forecast to be drier than average in the Amazon, while wetter-than-usual conditions are likely in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia.
The WMO emphasized that despite these dire projections, long-term warming (measured over decades) may still be held below 1.5°C if urgent action is taken to reduce fossil fuel emissions.
“The future of human health and the environment amid rising temperatures paints a worrying picture,” warned Chris Hewitt, WMO Director of Climate Services. “But this is not a lost cause. If we act now, we can still change the trajectory.”
Regional Highlights:
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South Asia is likely to continue seeing above-average rainfall, except for possible seasonal exceptions.
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Amazon region may suffer intensified drought conditions, affecting biodiversity and carbon absorption.
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Northern latitudes, including Siberia, will likely face increased precipitation, potentially altering ecosystems and increasing flood risks.
According to Leon Hermanson, lead author of the climate projections from the UK Met Office, “2025 is likely to be one of the three hottest years ever recorded.”
As the climate crisis deepens, experts continue to call for stronger global cooperation and swift implementation of climate policies to cap emissions and prevent irreversible damage.
“A 1.5°C rise is not inevitable — but inaction will make it so,” the WMO reiterated.
